The Kitchens Group (11/18-19, likely voters, 11/6-7 in parens):
Paul Carmouche (D): 48 (45)
John Fleming (R): 37 (35)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
That’s a fair spot better than the last two polls we’ve seen of this race. Interestingly, Kitchens pegs the African-American vote at a conservative 22% (this district is 33% black), meaning they estimate that the ‘Mouche is doing much better with whites than either SUSA or Public Opinion Strategies say he is. This one will probably go down to the wire.
The full polling memo and details are available below the fold.
But I’m more inclined to believe SUSA. About a 50/50 tossup race.
I don’t trust any polling in Louisiana. I thought:
1. Cazayoux would win by 8% (he lost by 8%).
2. Boustany and Scalise wouldn’t win by more than 10-15% (both were blowouts).
3 Landrieu would win in double digits (she won by 6%).
Louisiana was hard to figure this year. I don’t believe a poll that has a Democrat up by double digits in this district. I’d love to be surprised, but I don’t.
I also believe the Carmouche’s chances is not much better than 50/50.
I think we’re just going to have to wait and see.
But I don’t believe it. We have ourselves a toss-up. We’ll need to work to the very end to squeak out any kind of win here.
Has Jim Martin responded to Chambliss’s shit yet?